Just one week ago, the leading contender for the elections scheduled for autumn this year was Mubarak’s son Gamal. Both Mubaraks denied the father intended to bequeath the Republic to his offspring, but he made all the moves to position the 47 year-old as heir apparent. “Jimmy”, the nickname of the functionary who ascended to the pinnacle of his father’s ruling party, started to accompany his dad to international conventions and on state visits. In September, posters with his countenance were put up on the walls of destitute neighborhoods, reading “Gamal – dream of the poor”, while a “spontaneously formed” movement handed out meat for free in the streets below. But if this was intended as a PR campaign with the presidential race in mind, what the Mubarak’s strictly denied, it had little impact: In fact, the perception that Mubarak was trying to tamper with the constitution to turn Egypt into a “Jumluqiyah”, an Arab mix of the words monarchy and republic (read it as “demonarchy” if you will) was one of the main motivations behind recent unrest: “Tell Gamal we hate him!”, was a common slogan during heard in the protests.

To many Egyptians, Gamal, one of Egypt’s richest men, embodies the regime’s corruption. His posters were torn to pieces next to his father’s, and trying to instate him as an agent of change seems all but impossible now. Beside the masses, Gamal faces another great adversary: the military establishment, so far the source of Egypt’s leaders’ power. Gamal bet on the rising upper middle class and the rich, people who owed their prosperity to the privatization of state companies in the 1990s. The army views him with distrust, however, because they fear that he could curtail their influence and cut their budgets once anointed. With the people and the army against him, and his father reeling from public protest, Gamal’s chances now seem slim at best.
 
More appealing to the masses is Muhammad al Baradei, the former chief of the IAEA. The 68 year-old Nobel Peace prize laureate enjoys a high degree of international recognition. Last year, when he returned to Egypt, the hopes of many of the 20 or so of Egypt’s opposition movements, leftists, seculars and Islamists alike, were pinned on him. Within weeks, he managed to collect more than 900.000 signatures for his candidacy, but the laws enacted by Mubarak prevented him from running. Then he disappointed many: Instead of remaining behind to fight the regime, Baradei preferred a luxurious exile in his Vienna estate, leaving his supporters behind to bear the brunt of the secret police. “May Allah burn you! Stay where you are!”, wrote George Isak, once one of Baradeis fiercest supporters and organizers of his Kifayah movement. His standing suffered further when it appeared that Baradei was willing to cooperate with the regime, instead of calling for the radical change that seemed impossible just a few days ago.

But this dent in credibility and popularity seems to have been overcome ever since Baradei demonstrated with the masses in Tahrir square on Friday and was hosed down by a police water cannon. Now, Baradei is slowly evolving to become the courageous and outspoken opposition leader his supporters had always hoped he would become. Yesterday, the powerful Muslim Brotherhood declared that Baradei was authorized to negotiate a settlement for Mubarak’s ouster on its behalf, possibly exploiting a less antagonizing Baradei to exert their influence indirectly. 
 
It is precisely this Muslim Brotherhood (MB) that, should Egypt indeed become a democracy, would certainly become a major power broker. It is the most popular opposition movement, according to some estimates running as many as 160.000 mosques all over the country. For one year, it has been lead by a new Murshid, or surpreme guide: a hardliner called Muhammad Badie. Since being elected to his position last January, this 67 year-old veterinarian has strained to stress his peaceful intentions. But many suspect this he is veiling more sinister intentions. Badie began his career in the military wing of the MB until he was jailed for nine years. It is only one of the four prison sentences he proudly lists in his official curriculum vitae. A few weeks ago, he reportedly called for Jihad on the United States in an article circulated only in Arabic, and he has made it known that he objects to women serving as judges or Christians as presidents of Egypt. The MB, a movement not as monolithic as commonly perceived but rather increasingly divided into a more pragmatic faction that strives for broader appeal and hardcore purists, is divided about Badie’s hardcore views. This may undermine his ability to influence future political developments. Most analysts also doubt that Badie possesses the charisma necessary to take the reins and run a country as complex and large as Egypt. Compounding his situation is the fact that Badie would face stern opposition from a fiercely secular army leadership, even more than the secular outsider Baradei.
 
The army, Egypt’s most powerful institution, so far firmly backs Egypt’s grey eminence, General Omar Suleiman. Until 1999, the public did not even know what this battle hardened veteran of two wars with Israel looks like. He has long been regarded as Mubarak’s most trusted delegate; a view confirmed when he was appointed Vice President and therefore heir this Saturday. As commander of all of Egypt’s spy agencies, Suleiman is akin to the chief of the CIA, FBI, secret service and State Department for especially delicate manner put together in one person. Foreign observers regard him as “one of the most powerful people in the Middle East”. He has earned trust and respect in diplomatic circles abroad for his mediation skills in the most delicate missions, brokering a cease fire between Israel and Hamas and mediating in the constant Palestinian infighting. The generals see him as one of theirs, and as someone who has handled foreign threats more than suppressing his own populace, he is not as tainted with corruption as most of the rest of the leadership. Still, most protesters reacted with outrage when Mubarak announced Suleiman’s appointment as Vice President.
 
The question of who can lead Egypt out of its current quagmire cannot be answered easily, as no candidate seems to enjoy universal backing. A bumpy ride awaits whoever rises to this challenge.
 
© 2010 Gil Yaron - Making the Middle East Understandable