Within a “few weeks” Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to surprise the world with a new peace initiative and jump start the deadlocked peace process: “We will take a phased approach with guarantees for a two state solution”, a high-ranking Israeli official, who wished to remain anonymous, told this newspaper. The plan is currently being coordinated with Washington, which has so far rejected interim solutions, and with another potential adversary – Israel’s foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman, a hard-liner and, being the head of the second largest party inside the coalition, an influential powerbroker. The plan will offer Palestinians “substantial concessions” to make it palatable, the source continued, and demonstrate Israel’s willingness to reach a peace agreement.

“We would prefer to reach a definitive, negotiated settlement”, the official explained. But in light of regional developments “which have an uncertain outcome and probably spell long-term regional instability”, that goal seems unattainable. Palestinians have adamantly refused to return to the negotiation table as long as Israel does not declare a complete, unlimited settlement freeze, something Netanyahu will not agree to. The new diplomatic initiative is still being worked out, and details have been kept secret even from Netanyahu’s innermost circle of ministers.

The carefully orchestrated leaks attempt to portray Netanyahu’s plan as a bold move to reinvigorate a decrepit peace process, seem much more to be a reaction to Israel’s increasing isolation. In confidential conversations, diplomatic circles have reacted to the news with skepticism: “We do not know any details, but most people think this is a ploy to play for time”, one diplomatic source told this paper. Palestinians have categorically rejected any talk of a state in temporary borders as “insufficient”, especially as Netanyahu’s offer is unlikely to offer concessions or recognition of Palestinian rights in Jerusalem, a key Palestinian demand.

Israeli-Palestinian talks have ground to a standstill half a year ago. Back then, Ramallah has begun a diplomatic offensive to internationally isolate Israel. The Palestinians’ ultimate aim is to gain enough international backing to unilaterally declare a state in September – a move which they say could even out the “lopsided balance of power” of former negotiations. So far, they have been successful beyond expectation: Several South American States have voiced their recognition of a Palestinian state within 1967 borders. According to sources in Ramallah, even member states of the European Union have indicated their willingness to follow this example should the peace process remain stalled for much longer. One of the Palestinians’ largest successes was a vote in the UN-security council last week, which not only demonstrated Israel’s isolation, but also the U.S.’s solitude in its reluctant support for Netanyahu. In a move designed to shame Barack Obama’s administration, his ambassador remained a forlorn voice of dissent forced to veto a resolution harshly criticizing Israel’s settlement policy in the occupied West Bank. It was the first time since taking office that Obama was cornered into using his veto power to shelve a resolution, something he has so far keenly avoided. Not only in the Arab world this further tainted America’s image and hurt its status as an impartial mediator. As a consequence, bitterness between Jerusalem and Washington is rising to new heights.

Now, harsh criticism comes from new quarters. Informed sources have told this paper that the relationship with Germany, Israel’s most important and steadfast ally in Europe, is souring as well. “There are significant tensions between Chancellor Angela Merkel and Netanyahu”, they said. Berlin is deeply disappointed by Jerusalem’s “lack in cooperation and a dire absence of any demonstration of good will.” Behind the scenes, sources say that Germany is losing its will to cover Netanyahu’s back in the EU without getting anything in return, because supporting Israel unquestioningly exacts a painful price from them.

This sense of increasing isolation has begun to increase rancor on the inside as well. This week, Ilan Baruch, a distinguished diplomat and former ambassador to South Africa, quit his job at the Foreign Ministry in protest. In his letter of resignation, Baruch wrote that he found it “difficult to represent and explain” his country “with integrity.” Dan Gillerman, Israel’s former ambassador to the UN, warned that the “policy of ‘let’s wait and see what happens,’” could lead “to more isolation and more delegitimization.” Israel had not “shown resourcefulness nor leadership, and has not led any policy in any place that indicates any chance for discussion, any chance for a change,” Gillerman said.

In light of the growing discontent, defense minister Ehud Barak has begun to accompany the incipient peace plan with acts on the ground. Earlier this week, Israeli border police violently clashed with settlers as it evacuated an illegal outpost in the occupied West Bank for the first time in months. Fifteen people were slightly injured, eight arrested. Barak and Netanyahu made it clear they were determined to continue dismantling at least three more illegal outposts, home to an estimated 100 families. While that would hardly herald peace, it would at least address an issue that has overshadowed relations with the rest of the world for years.

© 2011 Gil Yaron - Making the Middle East Understandable