It is quite unusual for soldiers to break out with joy when they get shot at. This week however, Israel’s army almost exulted when a Palestinian commando attacked one of its tanks with a rocket propelled grenade (RPG) while it patrolled the border fence along the Gaza Strip. The reason: Instead of resulting in the killing of the tank’s crew, the incident evolved almost like a commercial that could prove a major boost for Israel’s high-tech weapons industry. When the explosive device approached Israel most advanced Merkava 4 tank, its newly developed “Trophy” system, an active protective shield for military vehicles, engaged the projectile and destroyed it in mid-flight. The tank survived the incident without a scratch, while Trophy located the source of fire, resulting in the killing of one Palestinian fighter.

The army called it a “historic event”: Until today, vehicles on the battlefield protected themselves from enemy fire by moving swiftly or by donning ever thicker, and heavier, steel plates. While at least 15 developers are struggling to develop active protective systems that would obviate the need for cumbersome armor, the encounter near Kibbutz Nir Oz turned Trophy into the first fully operational APS in the world. This Israeli system, so its developers tout, protects vehicles from all directions, even when multiple anti-tank missiles are launched simultaneously in close quarter combat. Once Trophy detects a threat, it analyzes its trajectory and, should it be headed its way, discharges pellets of bucket shot to destroy the incoming projectile before it hits home. The army claims that this is achieved without even endangering any friendly troops close by. With the effectiveness of the system now proven in combat, the military establishment hopes for a better future on the battlefield – and for many orders from abroad.

On a mountain somewhere in Israel’s north, high above a bustling city’s twinkling lights down below, Israel is currently installing another one of its magic bullets. Welcome in Abraham Tiloni’s dominion, where this commander in Israel’s air defense supervises the installation of the first two batteries of “Iron Dome”. Iron Dome is supposed to offer Israel’s battered cities the protection Trophy affords its tanks at the front line. Iron Dome can reportedly annihilate any rocket or grenade with ranges between 4-70 kilometers. The normally quite jovial Tiloni turns serious when he explains his mission: “Israel faces many new threats”, the tall Colonel explains: “Our enemies possess rockets with a wide variety of ranges and very high accuracy – from short range grenades and Kassams to very long range ballistic missiles. They have the ability to endanger multiple targets at the same time.”

These missiles have become the most significant threat to Israel’s security. This trend began during the first Gulf War in 1991, when the U.S. asked Israel to remain passive while Iraq attacked it with 38 SCUD missiles. The region’s only nuclear power and military juggernaut appeared unable to respond to the attacks, a sight that inspired its enemies. Ever since, organizations like Hamas in Gaza and Hesbollah in Lebanon have begun to stock up on missiles. Since the year 2000, Hamas has fired over 9000 rockets at Israel, more than 60 since the beginning of this year. During the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Hisbollah blanketed all of Israel’s North with more than a hundred of missiles fired daily, reaching a total of more than 4000 projectiles in 34 days. Thus it forced more than a million Israelis to either flee this part of the country or await the end of the war in their shelters, crippling the economy. Hisbollah’s anti-tank teams used guerilla tactics and RPGs to damage 52 advanced Israeli tanks, delaying and even halting the advance of armored columns whose mission was to halt the barrage of rockets pounding the home front. Since the end of that war, the threat to Israel has exacerbated. Hisbollah has amassed an arsenal of an estimated 50.000 missiles, more than twice as many as it possessed five years ago, while Hamas has laid hands on modern anti-tank and ground-to-ground missiles, exploiting the chaos during the early days of the revolution in Egypt to smuggle truckloads of weapons across the border with Sinai.

Israel’s increasing vulnerability kicked off programs to develop active defense systems that would give the troops a tactical advantage. Twenty years after SCUDs first rained down on Tel Aviv, and ten years after Hamas began to regularly pound the border city of Sderot with its self-made Kassam rockets, Israel finally has begun to deploy its own missile defense system for short- to medium-range missiles: “Our system is unique in the world”, says Tiloni, enthusiastically leaning forward over the huge wooden table that graces his small office. Enthusiasm sparkles in the large brown eyes of this 44 year old family man when he speaks of the technical abilities of his unit: “A Kassam rocket flies faster than 250 m/s. Because Hamas’ mode of production is not standardized, the rocket’s speed varies greatly and it often tumbles through the air. Nonetheless, Iron Dome accurately predicts its trajectory within fractions of a second. We know exactly where the rocket will fall, and can determine if we want to intercept it or not.” According to information communicated by ELTA, the firm that produces the multi mission radar (MMR) that guides Iron Dome’s interceptors, the system can detect and follow several targets simultaneously, even 155-mm grenades. So far, the military says, all field tests have been successful beyond expectation. “Had we had Iron Dome during the Second Lebanon war, I am sure the war’s course and outcome would have been very different”, says Tiloni.

Not everyone here concurs with this assessment: “Iron Dome is the biggest scam in Israel’s history”, says Reuven Pedazur, a researcher for security policy at Tel Aviv University. “Missiles with a range shorter than 16 km reach their target far too quickly for Iron Dome to intercept them. The original claim of its developers, namely that the system would help protect the cities in the South from rocket fire out of Gaza, is simply wrong.” Pedazur adds an economic perspective: “Every interceptor costs more than US$ 100.000, while a Kassam costs only several hundred Dollars.” With medium range missiles, like the Iranian Fajr of which Hisbollah is believed to possess thousands, the financial burden would be even bigger: “A Fajr costs around US$ 20.000. Every interceptor of “Magic Wand”, a weapons system supposed to enter service in 2014, will cost ten times as much.” Defending the country against cheap rockets with very expensive missiles will ruin Israel economically, argues Pedazur, and adds: “Hisbollah’s arsenal is so large that we will run out of defensive missiles after two days of war.” This former fighter pilot advocates taking the offensive: “The only way to stop your enemy from firing rockets at you is to conquer the areas from which he launches them.”

“Sounds easy, but this is utter nonsense”, counters Uzi Rubin, former director of Israel’s Association for Missile Defense, and one of Iron Dome’s fathers. Published prices referred to export only: “The IDF will pay a lot less for them. Pedazur forgets that our system intercepts only those missiles that would actually hit a target, which is less than 25% of incoming projectiles. We simply do not need as many missiles as Hisbollah.” In an age where diplomatic constraints seriously hamper Israel’s ability to take the offensive on the battlefield, defensive systems “give our decision makers more room to maneuver.”

In spite of the euphoria accompanying the recent deployment of Trophy and Iron Dome, Israel’s developers are well aware that they will have to keep working hard to maintain any advantage they might have. Already, Russian weapons manufacturers claim to offer an RPG that outsmarts Trophy. The RPG-30 features two warheads – the first clears the way through the defensive bucket shot so that the second, larger warhead can penetrate the tank’s armor. Even its unique missile defense system, which in about three years will be composed of at least five layers of interceptors, will not make Israeli airspace impenetrable: “We will never be able to deliver 100% security”, acknowledges Tiloni. “We cannot rely on technology alone”, says the Colonel. “Security will only be achieved with a comprehensive strategy, that combines active defense with deterrence, passive defense, early warning systems and impressive offensive capabilities”, says Tiloni.

Army men and their critics agree on one point, however: “Only peace will guarantee total security”, says Tiloni, and admits that he would prefer to play soccer with his children than to build up his missile defense unit.

© 2011 Gil Yaron - Making the Middle East Understandable

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