It seemed as though President Bashar Assad actually bought in to the charade that played out in Damascus this Wednesday. Tens of thousands of regime supporters thronged in the streets, chanting the opposition’s slogan with a slight pro-regime slant: While Assad’s detractors had taken to the streets in the past two weeks demanding “Allah, Syria, Freedom - that suffices!”, the well orchestrated mass called for “Allah, Syria, Bashar”. This call was echoed in the wooden clad plenary chamber of Syria’s parliament, where delegates tried to out-praise each other as they interrupted Assad’s much expected policy speech, the first since violent protests broke out in this country two weeks ago, with “spontaneous” outbreaks of adulation: “The Arab world is not good enough for you, I think you should be the leader of the world, Mr. President”, one delegate stated to the outpour of approving rounds of applause. Hardly surprising therefore that even though this was probably one of the most critical speeches Assad has held since he took the reins from his late father eleven years ago, he seemed relaxed and inappropriately jovial through most of his address. But the praise that was heaped on the smiling Assad, repeatedly interrupting his speech, is misleading: The 45 minute address did little to calm the rage that has unsettled Syria lately. Today (Friday), the regime faces a crucial test of its strength and deterrent power.
 
For two weeks now, security services have battled protesters in numerous cities, resulting in casualty figures that range from an official body count of 30 to opposition estimates way beyond 100. In a rare concession to the public mood, Assad effected the resignation of the government on Tuesday, a largely symbolic step as most power is concentrated solely in his hands. But expectations had been high for his speech, as sources close to Assad hinted to “major steps” that were about to be announced, even alluding to an end to the 48 year old state of emergency, one of the regime’s most powerful tools to keep its hold on power and a lid on dissent. But Assad delivered nothing but empty platitudes and a recanting of decades’ old slogans: “There is a conspiracy to dismantle Syria”, Assad asserted: “Our enemies work every day in an organized and public fashion to hurt Syria,” he told his parliament. “Our enemies want to divide Syria and force an Israeli agenda onto it, and they will try again and again.” Next to the Israeli-American plot to divide his country, a laughing Assad identified unnamed “satellite TV stations” as a main culprit for the unrest, since “they spread lies and later believe them even themselves.” Stability, defending “national unity” and raising prosperity were the most important aims for the near future, not the reforms demanded by the opposition: ““We can postpone [dealing with] suffering caused by the emergency law, but we cannot postpone the suffering of a child whose father does not have enough money to treat him.” Contrary to what has been promised, Assad did not suggest any major policy changes, asserting instead that he would abide by the course of slow-paced reform he had supposedly chartered years ago. But the dictator offered no deadlines. He may have been decidedly ambiguous on change, but he was very specific on how any further unrest would be met: “The conspiracy is big. We are not looking for battles. But we won't hesitate for a moment to defend our causes and interests and principles. And if the battle is imposed on us today, it's welcome."
 
In the streets of Damascus Assad’s speech had been eagerly anticipated. But many lost their interest in the live TV broadcast once it became clear that Assad was not about to offer anything new. Just hours later, protesters took to the streets in Latakiyah, only to be met with gunfire that reportedly killed two people. But the big test of strength is expected Friday, as in other Arab countries, where revolutions got a major push when big masses of protesters filled the streets after Friday prayers. The opposition has called for further protests on this “Friday of the martyrs”, named in honor of those killed in recent days. As Assad has made amply clear, he is now determined to confront any demonstrations violently. The army has taken up positions at hotspots as at the entrance of the city Daraa, where soldiers have barricaded themselves behind sandbags, training heavy machine guns at the streets before them. Reportedly, tanks have encircled Syria’s major population centers. Should protests erupt on Friday, they could easily end in a blood bath. But Assad’s speech and stifling military presence could have succeeded to intimidate his opposition, and buy his regime a brief respite.

© 2011 Gil Yaron - Making the Middle East Understandable